Hate is a strong word. I dislike him as a person, even tho I believe his private life with his family is probably very quiet and serene. I'm not gonna vote for him in the primary, but depending on who the Democrat nominee, I would vote for him over Biden for sure.
You’re not the only pundit seeing this as the end of Trump, and I truly hope you’re all correct, but I don’t think I’ll actually believe it until he’s six feet under. The man would probably win >50 million votes from a jail cell, and that’s an entirely plausible outcome in 2024 to me.
If the GOP establishment actually does move on from him, am I being foolish to think he’s arrogant enough to run on a third-party MAGA ticket? Even the threat might be his best leverage to win the nomination. I can imagine even DeSantis bending the knee if Trump makes clear how easy it would be to pull off a TR/Bull Moose Party maneuver and usher in a (hopefully nonracist) Woodrow Wilson equivalent to the White House. In some ways that’s my fondest hope because the field of Dems looking to succeed Biden is not exactly awe-inspiring, and the party could easily pull off the unfathomable (again) and lose to Trump atop the Republican ticket.
Well, interesting theory I guess. I completely agree that you can't count him out yet. Hence, my giving him a 5% chance. But I just can't see how anyone at this point would choose him over DeSantis. DeSantis has all the same grievance-based politics as Trump, all the same culture war nonsense, all the same ability to own the libs. But he's also smarter, and has a serious policy side, and isn't facing multiple criminal and civil lawsuits, and was never impeached, and never tried to start an insurrection.
I haven't given much thought to Trump running a third-party campaign. I could see him threatening to do it, but he issues lots of empty threats. Can you honestly see DeSantis backing down because of that threat? Or serious GOP leaders caving to that threat and backing Trump? I can't. In the end, the threat isn't credible because it's a no-win situation for Trump. As you point out, he wouldn't win the presidency by running third party, and on top of that, he would forever be known as the guy whose ego threw the White House to the Dems for another four years. I just don't seeing him being that dumb. But who knows.
It’s not about him being dumb, really- that goes without saying. He’s been a moron all the way to the Oval Office once though, and he might just do it again. What I’m trying to highlight is that he doesn’t care a lick about the Republican Party. He may hate Dems too, but he only actually cares about DJT. If the Republicans can’t get him what he wants, then I can easily picture him pulling them down with him out of pride and spite.
I’m completely speculating about this BTW, and you may well be right that he could use this as an empty threat. But it also seems very Trumpian to make a threat like this, then be forced to go through with it due to his gargantuan ego.
Or make a threat like this, then get beat by DeSantis in the primary, then claim it was election fraud, then tell all his supporters that they've been robbed, then tell the whole world that they don't deserve to have him and that he's got better things to do, then tell everyone that all the bad things that are going to happen in the future are all our fault and he would have stopped them but... etc.
Hate is a strong word. I dislike him as a person, even tho I believe his private life with his family is probably very quiet and serene. I'm not gonna vote for him in the primary, but depending on who the Democrat nominee, I would vote for him over Biden for sure.
You’re not the only pundit seeing this as the end of Trump, and I truly hope you’re all correct, but I don’t think I’ll actually believe it until he’s six feet under. The man would probably win >50 million votes from a jail cell, and that’s an entirely plausible outcome in 2024 to me.
If the GOP establishment actually does move on from him, am I being foolish to think he’s arrogant enough to run on a third-party MAGA ticket? Even the threat might be his best leverage to win the nomination. I can imagine even DeSantis bending the knee if Trump makes clear how easy it would be to pull off a TR/Bull Moose Party maneuver and usher in a (hopefully nonracist) Woodrow Wilson equivalent to the White House. In some ways that’s my fondest hope because the field of Dems looking to succeed Biden is not exactly awe-inspiring, and the party could easily pull off the unfathomable (again) and lose to Trump atop the Republican ticket.
Well, interesting theory I guess. I completely agree that you can't count him out yet. Hence, my giving him a 5% chance. But I just can't see how anyone at this point would choose him over DeSantis. DeSantis has all the same grievance-based politics as Trump, all the same culture war nonsense, all the same ability to own the libs. But he's also smarter, and has a serious policy side, and isn't facing multiple criminal and civil lawsuits, and was never impeached, and never tried to start an insurrection.
I haven't given much thought to Trump running a third-party campaign. I could see him threatening to do it, but he issues lots of empty threats. Can you honestly see DeSantis backing down because of that threat? Or serious GOP leaders caving to that threat and backing Trump? I can't. In the end, the threat isn't credible because it's a no-win situation for Trump. As you point out, he wouldn't win the presidency by running third party, and on top of that, he would forever be known as the guy whose ego threw the White House to the Dems for another four years. I just don't seeing him being that dumb. But who knows.
It’s not about him being dumb, really- that goes without saying. He’s been a moron all the way to the Oval Office once though, and he might just do it again. What I’m trying to highlight is that he doesn’t care a lick about the Republican Party. He may hate Dems too, but he only actually cares about DJT. If the Republicans can’t get him what he wants, then I can easily picture him pulling them down with him out of pride and spite.
I’m completely speculating about this BTW, and you may well be right that he could use this as an empty threat. But it also seems very Trumpian to make a threat like this, then be forced to go through with it due to his gargantuan ego.
Or make a threat like this, then get beat by DeSantis in the primary, then claim it was election fraud, then tell all his supporters that they've been robbed, then tell the whole world that they don't deserve to have him and that he's got better things to do, then tell everyone that all the bad things that are going to happen in the future are all our fault and he would have stopped them but... etc.
You’ve really captured Trump’s sniveling, whiney nature with this prediction. So yeah, it could definitely happen.